Futurology of the Situation of Public Hospitals in Iran Until 2032
Keywords:
Public Hospitals; Futuristic Studies; Hospital ManagementAbstract
Background: The changes in the role of hospitals in the future require planning for the changes in the structure of hospitals. This study aimed to explore the state of public hospitals in Iran by 2032. Materials and Methods: The participants were 20 hospital management and healthcare experts selected using purposive sampling. Structural interaction analysis and MICMAC software were used for data processing. Results: The findings indicated the growing budgetary constraints in the health sector due to the increasing economic and health burden of non-communicable diseases and emerging diseases caused by environmental changes, the structure of the purchase of drugs, consumables, and medical equipment, the share of the health sector in the national public budget, providing access to capital/loans for the development of hospital activities by the government, the cost-effectiveness ratio of each service, the overcharged tariff set for hospital services, and public health insurance and a shift from employer-based insurance coverage to government-oriented insurance coverage are the key drivers affecting the state of public hospitals in Iran. Conclusion: The identified factors play a vital role in the state of public hospitals in Iran. This can be useful for policymakers and hospital managers to recognize the future developments of hospitals and healthcare centers.
References
Khademi Jolgehnejad A, Ahmadi Kahnali R, Heyrani A. Futures studies of hospital resilience supply chain with the intuitive logics scenario planning. Hospital. 2020;19(3):9-19.
Amin E, Ghasemi E, Haghdoost AA, Hashemian F, Sabermahani A. The Hospital Wards of the Future Framework. Journal of Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences. 2016;15(7):607-20.
Heidari OP, VAHDAT S, Soltani H. Presentation of Health Financing System Model with Emphasis on Structural, Contextual, Instrumental and Content Factors. Journal of Healthcare Management Research. 2020;11(1):87-99.
Mekuria GA, Ali EE. The financial burden of out of pocket payments on medicines among households in Ethiopia: analysis of trends and contributing factors. BMC Public Health. 2023;23(1):808.
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15751-3
PMid:37138248 PMCid:PMC10155387
Sarwal R, Prasad U, Gopal KM, Kalal S, Kaur D, Kumar A et al. Investment opportunities in India's healthcare sector. NITI Aayog: Book; 2021.
https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/rtup2
Eisavi M, Moayedfard A. Budget Trends and Financing Methods of the Health Sector in Iran: an Operational Proposal. Journal of Health Administration. 2022;24(4):71-83.
https://doi.org/10.52547/jha.24.4.71
Mustafa Ö. Socioeconomic Determinants of Out-Of-Pocket Health Care Expenditures in Turkey. Fiscaoeconomia. 2023; 7(2):1196-211.
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1239845
Jani K, Chaudhary B. Importance of Hospital Management. A Guide to Hospital Administration and Planning: Springer; 2023.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6692-7_2
Mackillop WJ, Hanna TP, Brundage MD. Health services research in radiation oncology: toward achieving the achievable for patients with cancer Clinical radiation oncology. Elsevier. 2016; 2: 217-38
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-24098-7.00012-5
Jazieh AR, Kozlakidis Z. Healthcare transformation in the post-coronavirus pandemic era. Frontiers in Medicine. 2020;7:429.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2020.00429
PMid:32850915 PMCid:PMC7399067
Agarwal V. The future of healthcare post covid. The: Economic Times; 2021.
GWG B. Role of analytical tools in airline. flight safety management systems: Global Aviation Information Network; 2004.
Beleya P, Veerappan G, Ding WJ, Tan J. Challenges in attaining sustainable development goals in port Klang: Port management perspective. International Journal of Supply Chain Management. 2020;9(1):349-55.
Pro DD, Con BM. Should key performance indicators for clinical services be mandatory? Canadian journal of Hospital Pharmacy. 2011;64(1): 989.
https://doi.org/10.4212/cjhp.v64i1.989
PMid:22479031 PMCid:PMC3053195
Rodriguez M, Hilderink H. Scenario Development. Using: Foresight Studies; 2023.
Rahmanian E, Nekoei M, Mardani M. Factors affecting futures Studies in hospitals: A Qualitative Study. Journal of Qualitative Research in Health Sciences. 2019;7(4):361-71.
Pizzini MJ. The relation between cost-system design, managers' evaluations of the relevance and usefulness of cost data, and financial performance: an empirical study of US hospitals. Accounting, organizations and society. 2006;31(2):179-210.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aos.2004.11.001
Stone P, Brooks R, Brynjolfsson E, Calo R, Etzioni O, Hager G, et al. Artificial intelligence and life in 2030: the one hundred year study on artificial intelligence. arXiv preprint arXiv. 2022; :221106318.
Pink GH, Daniel I, Hall L, McKILLOP I. Selection of key financial indicators: a literature, panel and survey approach. Healthcare quarterly (Toronto, Ont). 2007;10(1):87-96.
https://doi.org/10.12927/hcq.2007.18661
PMid:18271103
Amiri MM, Tavana AM. Successful implementation of General Health Policies in the Islamic Republic of Iran: barriers and mechanisms. Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal. 2018;24(12):1127-34.
https://doi.org/10.26719/emhj.18.009
PMid:30799552
Janati A, Valizadeh S, Asghari-Jafarabadi M. Development of financial indicators of hospital performance. Journal of Clinical Research & Governance. 2014;3(2):92-8.
Roudi F, Azadi P, Mesgaran M. Iran's population dynamics and demographic. window of opportunity: Domestic Economy; 2017.
Yazdani A, Fekrazad H, Sajadi H, Salehi M. Relationship between social participation and general health among the elderly. Journal of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences. 2015;18(10): 2298.
Rahimi H, Kavosi Z, Shojaei P, Kharazmi E. Key performance indicators in hospital based on balanced scorecard model. Health Management & Information Science. 2017;4(1):17-24.
Retèl VP, Joore MA, Linn SC, Rutgers EJ, van Harten WH. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment. BMC research notes. 2012;5:1-12.
https://doi.org/10.1186/1756-0500-5-442
PMid:22894140 PMCid:PMC3444406
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Galen Medical Journal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
